Harry Kane scored 73 goals in 65 matches this year. If that doesn't win him a Ballon d'Or, nothing will.
ESPN polled 20 journalists from 20 different countries — mirroring the structure of the official voting panel — and the verdict on the men's award landed firmly with the Bayern Munich striker. Kane took half of all first-place votes, enough to pull clear of a fractured field that includes Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappé, Lionel Messi, Rodri, and Fabián Ruiz.
The ceremony is on October 26 in London, and the race is anything but settled. But ESPN's experiment offers a useful read on how the world's football press is leaning.
Kane's case — and the resistance to Yamal
The strangest result in the men's ballot wasn't who topped it — it was who didn't. Yamal, the 19-year-old Barcelona winger who dazzled through LaLiga and played a key role in Spain's World Cup campaign, received just a single first-place vote. ESPN writer Bill Connelly framed it bluntly: Kane played eight more matches and over 600 more minutes than Yamal, and produced 81 combined goals and assists — 36 more than the teenager.
That gap is hard to argue with. Kane also scored more goals for Bayern this season than in any previous campaign of his career. The England striker would become just the fifth Englishman to win the award, joining Sir Stanley Matthews, Sir Bobby Charlton, Kevin Keegan, and Michael Owen. That's the company he's playing for.
Mbappé voters pointed to his 10 World Cup goals and his status as the tournament's all-time top scorer with 22. Ruiz supporters — most passionately ESPN Spain's Moises Llorens — argued the PSG midfielder won the Champions League and the World Cup and was fundamental to both, but simply lacks the commercial profile to get the credit he deserves. Rodri earned a first-place vote for his World Cup influence. Messi got two, with ESPN India's Anirudh Menon making the case that at 39, his World Cup showing proved no one else is even close.
None of them could match Kane's volume. Though it's worth flagging: Kane received half the first-place votes, but only one of the other ten voters ranked him second. That split matters when it comes to the actual Ballon d'Or panel of 100 journalists — Kane's ceiling may be high, but so is his floor of indifference.
Putellas is the easy call on the women's side
The Ballon d'Or Féminin vote wasn't a debate. Alexia Putellas walked it.
In what turned out to be her final season at Barcelona, she captained the club to a second Quadruple in three years — Liga F, the Women's Champions League, the Copa de la Reina, and the Supercopa — while contributing 20 goals and 14 assists in 43 appearances. She has since moved to London City Lionesses, where she's currently captaining a side sitting third in the WSL.
Should she win on October 26, Putellas would claim her third Ballon d'Or, drawing level with former Barcelona teammate Aitana Bonmatí as the award's most decorated recipient. That's a significant milestone in the women's game.
The other first-place votes were split between Ewa Pajor — Barcelona's Champions League top scorer with 11 goals, including a brace in the 4-0 final win over OL Lyonnes — Temwa Chawinga of Kansas City Current, and Barcelona midfielder Patri Guijarro. Pajor's case is strong on numbers alone, but Putellas's combination of leadership, output, and occasion proved decisive for most voters.
The other awards at a glance
- Men's young player (Kepa Trophy): Lamine Yamal (Barcelona) ahead of Pau Cubarsí and Yan Diomandé
- Women's young player: Vicky López (Barcelona) ahead of Lily Yohannes and Felicia Schröder
- Men's goalkeeper: Unai Simón (Athletic Club), with David Raya and Joan García behind him
- Women's goalkeeper: Cata Coll (Barcelona), ahead of Hannah Hampton
- Men's coach: Luis de la Fuente (Spain), ahead of Luis Enrique and Mikel Arteta
- Women's coach: Pere Romeu (Barcelona)
- Men's club: Paris Saint-Germain, with Arsenal second and Bayern Munich third
- Women's club: Barcelona, ahead of OL Lyonnes and Manchester City
PSG taking men's club of the year ahead of Arsenal is an interesting call — and one that will sharpen attention on their Champions League odds heading into next season. The Gunners' runners-up finish suggests their standing in Europe is being taken seriously, even if the trophy cabinet still needs updating.
Kane's odds to win the actual Ballon d'Or will likely tighten off the back of results like this. He's not the sentimental pick. He's the statistical one.
