"If the safety of the national team's players in the United States is ensured, we will travel to the World Cup." That quote from Iran's Sports and Youth Minister Ahmad Donyamali tells you everything about the position Team Melli are in right now — training for a tournament they may never board a plane to reach.
The decision, Donyamali confirmed, sits with the government and the Supreme National Security Council, not the football federation. That's a significant detail. This isn't a scheduling dispute or a visa headache. Iran's participation in the 2026 World Cup is a geopolitical question being answered at the highest levels of the state.
A fragile ceasefire and an immovable FIFA
The backdrop is the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran that began on February 28, with a Pakistan-mediated ceasefire approaching its April 22 deadline. Whether that holds — and what happens after — will likely determine more than any football official can.
Iran's Football Federation already asked FIFA to relocate their matches out of the US. FIFA said no, citing logistical reasons and confirming all fixtures go ahead as scheduled. That refusal has real consequences: Iran are set to play New Zealand on June 15 in Los Angeles, Belgium on June 21 also in Los Angeles, and Egypt on June 26 in Seattle. Every single group game, on US soil.
FIFA President Gianni Infantino, who has cultivated a relationship with Donald Trump, pushed back against the US President's suggestion that Iran's presence at the tournament would be "not appropriate." Infantino's position was clear: "Iran has to come. They represent their people. They have qualified. The players want to play." Trump's framing — that it's about the players' own safety — and Infantino's response create an unusual diplomatic knot that no football governing body is really equipped to untangle.
Preparing for a tournament they might not attend
Despite all of this, Donyamali confirmed the squad's training camp will begin May 10 and run for over a week. Iran also played two international friendlies in Turkiye last month under tight security and restricted media access — hardly normal World Cup prep, but a sign the football side is being kept alive regardless.
"The national team may not go to the World Cup, but if we are going to participate, we must be ready," Donyamali said. There's a pragmatism to that logic, even if the situation itself is anything but.
For betting markets, Iran's group odds are essentially unreadable until the political picture clears. A group containing New Zealand, Belgium, and Egypt becomes structurally different without one of its teams present — Belgium's path to the knockouts, in particular, looks considerably smoother if Iran withdraw. Those markets should be treated with extreme caution until there's a definitive answer from Tehran.
The ceasefire deadline is Thursday. Iran's answer probably comes shortly after.
