Messi has a hat trick. The USMNT has already booked their knockout spot. Switzerland just put four goals past Bosnia in 23 minutes. The 2026 World Cup is barely a week old and it's already delivering.
With 48 teams across 12 groups and a Round of 32 ahead, here's how this thing actually works — and who's best placed to win it.
Group stage: how teams advance
The 48 teams are split into 12 four-team groups. Each team plays the other three once. Win = 3 points, draw = 1, loss = 0. The top two from every group advance automatically. The eight best third-place finishers across all 12 groups also go through — sorted by points, then goal difference, then goals scored, then FIFA ranking if needed.
Once teams are level on points within a group, it comes down to head-to-head results first, then goal difference in those specific games, then goals scored in them. Familiar tiebreaker logic, but worth knowing when the final matchday gets chaotic.
Group stage results so far include some genuine statements. Germany put seven past Curaçao. Spain were held by Cape Verde — a result that probably had a few Spain title backers sweating. France, Norway, and Canada have all looked sharp. The USMNT beat Paraguay 4-1 on opening day, then closed out Australia 2-0 to clinch their place in the last 32.
Knockout format and what happens in a draw
From the Round of 32 onward, it's straight single elimination. Lose and you go home. Draws after 90 minutes go to 30 minutes of extra time — no golden goal — and then penalties if still level. Five kicks each, different takers, most goals wins.
The only exception to pure elimination: the two semifinal losers meet in a third-place playoff before the final.
The final is scheduled for July 19 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey — the tournament's showpiece venue, hosting a World Cup final for the first time.
One notable 2026 rule change: VAR can now be used to review second yellow card decisions, something previously off-limits. Yellow card slates are wiped clean after the group stage and again after the quarterfinals, so short-term suspension risk resets at those points.
Who are the favourites — and what the odds say
Spain enter as tournament favourites at +450 with BetMGM, though that 0-0 draw with Cape Verde in their opener didn't exactly reinforce the case. Their attacking fluency looked blunted, and until Luis de la Fuente's side find a consistent rhythm, that price deserves scrutiny.
France at +500 look the more convincing bet right now — a 3-1 win over Senegal with room to spare. England (+700) dismantled Croatia 4-2 in a statement opener. Argentina (+900) are coasting in Group J with Messi in the kind of form that makes you wonder if he's playing in his last World Cup or saving the best for it.
- Spain: +450
- France: +500
- England: +700
- Portugal: +800
- Argentina: +900
- Brazil: +900
- Germany: +1400
- Netherlands: +2000
- United States: +5000
Brazil are another curious case. A 1-1 draw with Morocco in their opener, then a 3-0 win over Haiti — solid enough, but not the dominant Seleção that +900 implies. Morocco, meanwhile, showed in that Brazil result they're not just making up numbers.
The tournament runs until July 19 across 16 venues in the US, Mexico, and Canada — 104 matches in total, the most in World Cup history. The bracket is about to get serious.
