"If they lose in this game, it's same old USA." Dave Portnoy didn't wait for the Bosnia and Herzegovina match to make his verdict known. The Barstool Sports founder has been watching the USMNT celebrations with a raised eyebrow, and he's not entirely wrong to do so.
Portnoy, who backed the US at 35/1, was blunt in conversation with T-Bob Hebert: "A lot of people think we're having the greatest, deepest run we've ever had at the World Cup, but the reality of the situation is they expanded the tournament, and this essentially is the beginning of every other World Cup."
That's a fair point, whether you like him or not. With 48 teams now in the field, winning a group is no longer what it used to be. The USMNT progressed from a favorable group, suffered a 3-2 loss to Turkey with a heavily rotated side conceding in the 98th minute, and now face Bosnia in the round of 32. In previous World Cup formats, they'd essentially just be getting started.
The knockout record is genuinely damning
The history here is not kind. Since 1930 — where the US finished third, albeit in a tournament with no third-place playoff — the USMNT have reached the knockouts just five times across eleven World Cup appearances. Their only knockout win came against Mexico in 2002, a 2-0 result that remains a lone bright spot in an otherwise grim record. Round-of-16 exits followed in 2010, 2014, and 2022.
Their best run in the modern era? A 2002 quarterfinal that ended with a 1-0 defeat to Germany. That's the ceiling they've never pushed past.
Hebert argues the class of 2026 has already done something no US side has managed since 1930 — won back-to-back World Cup matches. Mauricio Pochettino's squad is young, has genuine attacking talent, and Christian Pulisic carries the kind of weight you'd expect from a captain. The optimism isn't manufactured.
Bosnia is where the narrative gets written
But Portnoy's challenge stands. The expanded format flatters everyone in the group stage — it's designed to. The USMNT's odds of a deep run will look very different on the other side of the Bosnia game. A loss here, and all the talk about a "new generation" fades fast. The 35/1 ticket Portnoy is holding suddenly looks a lot less interesting too.
The US haven't cracked knockout football at a World Cup since the Bush administration. Bosnia is the first real chance to change that story — or confirm it.
