Zlatan Ibrahimović says Lamine Yamal. Thierry Henry says Kylian Mbappé. Two legends, one award, zero consensus — and the real intrigue is that neither of them is obviously wrong.
At the FC 27 launch in New York, Ibrahimović was asked for his Ballon d'Or pick and didn't hesitate: "Yamal." Simple as that. Henry, meanwhile, has gone on record with Fox Sports backing Mbappé, even pre-empting the usual criticism: "People will tell me that he didn't win anything. I think it happened in history. I think some people need to do their research on that one."
He's not wrong on that front. The Ballon d'Or isn't purely a team trophy — individual dominance has always carried weight. And Mbappé's 2025-26 reads like a highlights reel: top scorer in the Champions League, top scorer in La Liga, top scorer in World Cup history. Henry added Michael Olise as a close second, noting his assist numbers match the attacking output from the top tier.
Yamal's Case Is Hard to Argue Against
Still, Ibrahimović's pick is the one that keeps stacking up. Yamal — 19 years old — scored 25 goals and added 20 assists across 57 appearances for Barcelona and Spain in 2025-26. He won La Liga. He won the World Cup. He was named La Liga Player of the Year. He finished second in last year's voting and has spent the past month making his case directly: "There have been big stars in football, like Leo, Cristiano, Diego... but no one had won so much so early."
Hard to call that campaign talk when the numbers are sitting right there.
A Yamal win would make him the youngest Ballon d'Or winner ever — edging out Ronaldo Nazário, who claimed it in 1997 at 21. That's the kind of historical footnote that voters tend to notice.
Where the Bookmakers Stand
Interestingly, most bookmakers currently rank neither Yamal nor Mbappé at the top. Harry Kane sits as favorite after a season that borders on statistical fiction — 73 goals in 65 matches for Bayern and England, including the Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal double. He's the first player since Messi in 2011-12 to crack 70 goals in a single season. That kind of output tends to move markets for good reason.
Behind Kane: Mbappé, then Yamal, with Rodri, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, and Lionel Messi further down the list. If you're looking at value, Mbappé's individual medal haul — World Cup golden boot, Champions League top scorer — without team silverware is the variable that keeps his price interesting.
The ceremony itself lands on October 26, with the London Palladium hosting for the first time — a nod to inaugural winner Stanley Matthews, 70 years on from the first ever award.
- Harry Kane — 73 goals, Bundesliga + DFB-Pokal winner, current bookmaker favourite
- Lamine Yamal — 25G/20A, La Liga + World Cup winner, second in 2025 voting
- Kylian Mbappé — World Cup all-time top scorer, Champions League top scorer, La Liga top scorer
- Michael Olise — Henry's close second pick, standout assist numbers in 2025-26
Yamal himself put it plainly: "There was the instance of Pelé, but not more recently." If the voting panel agrees, he won't just win an award — he'll rewrite the record books in the process.
