Kaoru Mitoma won't be there. That's the headline Japan couldn't avoid on Friday, when manager Hajime Moriyasu announced what he believes is the strongest squad the Samurai Blue have ever assembled — and the best player in it won't be on the plane.
Mitoma's injury, confirmed just before the announcement, forced Moriyasu's hand. Brighton and the Japanese medical staff agreed he wouldn't recover in time. It's the kind of blow that could quietly reshape Japan's ceiling at this tournament — Mitoma was the one player genuinely capable of unlocking a defense on his own.
What Moriyasu has built in his place
To Moriyasu's credit, he's been managing for exactly this kind of situation. Since the Qatar World Cup he's called up over 80 players to the national team, rotating constantly through international friendlies, stress-testing depth rather than just leaning on a settled XI. Keito Nakamura of Stade de Reims stepped up against Brazil last October when Mitoma was absent, and did enough to make himself a genuine option rather than just a name in the squad.
The wins against Germany in 2023, Brazil in October, and England in March point to a team that has genuinely grown since the Qatar round of 16. Japan lost to Croatia on penalties in that tournament after beating Germany and Spain in the group stage — results that at the time looked like giant-killings but increasingly look like a statement of where this squad actually sits.
Moriyasu has also taken a calculated risk on Wataru Endo (Liverpool) and Takehiro Tomiyasu (Ajax), both carrying injuries at the time of selection. It's not the first time he's backed that instinct — Shinji Okazaki and Takashi Inui recovered from pre-tournament injuries to perform at the 2018 World Cup. If it pays off, Japan's midfield and defensive depth suddenly looks considerably better.
The quarter-final target is serious, not just ambition
Reaching the last eight for the first time is the stated goal. Given the squad's results over the past two years and the experience built into the coaching structure — multiple staff members with prior World Cup experience — that's not an unrealistic target. Japan's dark horse tag in the betting markets reflects genuine uncertainty about how far they can go, not just optimism.
The Mitoma absence is real, though. Any model pricing Japan's chances of a deep run has to factor in that the one player who could genuinely terrorize a top-ten defense in a knockout game won't be involved. Moriyasu deliberated until the morning of the announcement, according to reports, determined to own the final call himself.
Whether the squad depth he's spent three years constructing is enough to compensate is the question that won't be answered until the tournament begins.
