Lionel Messi has scored 21 World Cup goals, broken the all-time record, and is threatening a mark that has stood since 1958. He is also statistically a below-average penalty taker. Both of those things are true at the same time.
Two misses from the spot at the 2026 World Cup — a weak shot wide against Austria, then a save by Egypt's Mostafa Shobeir in the Round of 16 — have pushed Messi's career conversion rate to 77%. Opta puts the baseline expectation for any penalty at 79%. By that measure, Argentina's greatest ever player is a fraction worse than a random professional when it comes to spot kicks. That's not a knock on his legacy. It's just a problem worth solving before it costs them a quarterfinal or worse.
He's scored twice from open play against Austria and hit a brilliant equaliser in the 3-2 comeback against Egypt, so the damage has been contained so far. But Argentina are into the knockout stages now. Margins shrink. Mistakes don't get cancelled out as easily.
The candidates to take over
Julian Alvarez is the obvious answer. A 89.47% conversion rate across 19 career penalties — taken at River Plate, Manchester City, and Atletico Madrid — shows he handles the pressure without flinching. He hits them hard and straight. He's also the man whose slipped penalty against Real Madrid in the 2024/25 Champions League actually changed IFAB's rules on accidental double touches. That's the kind of influence that follows you around.
Leandro Paredes has the best conversion rate on paper — 93.75% from 16 career attempts — though his only professional miss came for Argentina against Peru at the most recent Copa America, which is a slightly uncomfortable footnote. Enzo Fernandez (91.6%, six consecutive scores since his one career miss) and Alexis Mac Allister (92.3%, though he hasn't taken a competitive one in over two years) are also credible options.
The one name to cross off the list immediately: Lautaro Martinez. Nineteen scored, eleven missed, 67.85% conversion rate. Roughly one in three penalties doesn't go in. For a striker of his calibre, that number is genuinely alarming.
What this means going forward
Scaloni has a decision to make, and the respectful one isn't necessarily the right one. Messi's overall record for Argentina from the spot is 25 from 32 — the same 78% ballpark as his career numbers, so this isn't a slump, it's just who he is on penalties. He scored four from the spot at the 2022 World Cup, but he also has two shootout misses for Argentina, both in Copa America finals or knockouts.
- Messi career penalties: 148 taken, 114 scored, 77% conversion
- Alvarez: 19 taken, 17 scored, 89.47% conversion
- Mac Allister: 13 taken, 12 scored, 92.3% conversion
- Paredes: 16 taken, 15 scored, 93.75% conversion
- Enzo Fernandez: 12 taken, 11 scored, 91.6% conversion
- Lautaro Martinez: 28 taken, 19 scored, 67.85% conversion
Argentina's odds of going deep into this tournament rest heavily on Messi's brilliance from open play. There's no argument there. But giving him penalty duties on top of everything else, when the numbers say Alvarez or Fernandez would convert more often, is a loyalty call dressed up as tactics. The quarterfinal against Switzerland is coming. One missed penalty there and the question stops being hypothetical.
