"A significant number of clubs have told us they would not survive if their owners walked away." That line, buried in England's first-ever State of the Game report from the Independent Football Regulator, should stop everyone cold.
The IFR published its draft findings this week, and the picture is grim in a very specific way. Ninety-four percent of clubs across the top five divisions are operating at a loss. Nearly two-thirds of EFL and National League clubs are technically insolvent — kept alive by owner cash injections rather than anything resembling a sustainable business model.
A house of cards held up by wealthy benefactors
That's the real story here. English football at the lower and mid levels isn't just unprofitable — it's structurally dependent on private wealth that can disappear overnight. One owner decision, one change of heart, one financial scandal, and clubs vanish. It's happened before. It will happen again.
IFR Chair David Kogan put it plainly: "While some of our clubs are among the richest and most competitive in the world, others are standing on the edge of financial disaster." The gap between a Champions League contender and a League One club facing administration isn't just sporting — it's existential.
Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy went further, saying the report "blown the doors off the game." Strong language from a minister, and not inaccurate. Fans of clubs outside the top flight have spent years sensing exactly this fragility. Now they have the data to confirm it.
The IFR's proposed fix is a six-point plan centered on stronger cost controls and mandatory contingency planning — essentially forcing clubs to have a survival strategy in place before crisis hits, not after.
The Premier League deal and the Man City overhang
The Premier League, meanwhile, insists a revenue-sharing deal with the EFL is the path forward. Their offer stands at $4.2 billion over 10 years. The EFL wants $2.3 billion over five — a faster injection rather than a longer drip. Whether that gap closes matters enormously for Championship and League One clubs whose financial odds of survival grow shorter by the season.
Then there's Manchester City. The IFR has the authority to assess owner suitability over financial misconduct, which puts City's Abu Dhabi ownership in potential scope if the club loses its appeal against the independent commission's guilty verdict on financial rule breaches. Kogan was asked directly whether political pressure had landed on his desk since that ruling. His answer was unusually blunt for a regulator: "Any form of political interference on the way we operate is going to result in my resigning from this role."
City maintain the commission's findings contain "clear material errors" and the appeal continues. But the IFR's existence — and its willingness to follow evidence where it leads — means the institutional backdrop to that case has shifted. The regulator isn't going anywhere, and neither is the question of who gets to own English football clubs and under what conditions.
The draft report now goes to an eight-week public consultation before a final version drops. Expect clubs, leagues, and owners to push back hard. The findings validate what supporters already feared — and give regulators the ammunition to actually do something about it.
