The Netherlands arrive at the 2026 World Cup as clear group favorites, drawn against Japan, Sweden and Tunisia in Group F. Ronald Koeman's side should advance. They probably will. But anyone watching Qatar 2022 knows exactly why Japan deserves more than a footnote here.
The Dutch have the second-most World Cup final appearances without a title — three runner-up finishes in 1974, 1978 and 2010. Each generation carries that weight. Koeman, who won Euro 1988 as a player, is back for a second stint in charge and knows better than most what Dutch football demands. The squad has genuine Premier League quality: Virgil van Dijk, Ryan Gravenberch, Tijjani Reijnders, Cody Gakpo. But this isn't the 1974 vintage or the 2010 vintage. Netherlands' group-stage odds look comfortable; their tournament odds are harder to justify at short prices.
Japan are not a side you can paper over
Japan knocked out Germany and Spain in the same group at Qatar 2022. That wasn't luck — it was a structured, high-pressing team that punished complacency twice in a row. They've qualified eight consecutive World Cups and are pushing to reach the last 16 for a third straight tournament. Their squad is largely European-based now, anchored by Bayern Munich defender Hiroki Ito and Brighton forward Kaoru Mitoma. They're not making up the numbers.
Any model pricing Netherlands as near-certain group winners needs to account for Japan. They're a live upset pick, and the group-winner market deserves scrutiny because of it.
Sweden came through the back door — but they have two of Europe's best strikers
Sweden's route to this tournament was embarrassing by their standards. They finished bottom of their qualifying group without a single win. It took a strong Nations League campaign just to earn a playoff spot, where they beat Ukraine and Poland to squeeze through under new manager Graham Potter.
And yet: Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres are two of the most dangerous strikers on the continent right now. Lucas Bergvall and Anthony Elanga add genuine quality. Sweden's squad is better than their qualifying record suggests, which makes them a dangerous middle-table team in this group — hard to beat, capable of nicking points off anyone.
Tunisia round out the group aiming to become the first Tunisian side to clear the group stage in seven appearances. They came close in Qatar, beating defending champions France 1-0 and drawing with Denmark, only to go out on goal difference. Coach Sabri Lamouchi has inherited a rebuild job after an early AFCON exit, but 21-year-old PSG signing Khalil Ayari represents exactly the kind of young talent that can catch teams off guard.
- Netherlands — favorites to top the group, but van Dijk and company have to earn it
- Japan — beaten Germany and Spain already; Netherlands fans should not sleep on this fixture
- Sweden — Potter's squad is better than their qualifying form, Isak and Gyökeres are the x-factor
- Tunisia — the group's long shot, but they've already beaten France at a World Cup
Netherlands are the right favorites. But Group F is not a walkover, and the Japan fixture could define the entire group before it's halfway done.
