The United States is out. A 4-1 loss to Belgium in the Round of 16 ended it, and yes, it stings. But eight teams are still alive, the quarterfinals kick off Thursday, and grief has a shelf life. Pick a team. Here's how to think about it.
The Favorites and Why They're Worth Your Time
France are built around a storyline that writes itself. Kylian Mbappé scored a hat trick in the 2022 final, sent it to extra time, scored again — and still lost on penalties to Argentina. He walked past the World Cup trophy to collect the Golden Boot, which is the kind of image that follows a player. Now France and Argentina are on a collision course again, with Mbappé on 7 goals and Messi on 8. If you want revenge drama, Les Bleus are your team.
Argentina are defending champions and Messi — somehow, at nearly 40 — is playing the best football of any outfield player at the tournament. They nearly didn't make it here, scrambling past Cape Verde and then coming from behind to beat Egypt 3-2 in the Round of 16. If you're going to bandwagon, at least be honest about it. The blue-and-white No. 10 jersey is already everywhere. Just put it on.
Spain are the most technically interesting team left. Their starting 11 against Portugal averaged well under 30 years old — 18-year-old Lamine Yamal on the wing, 19-year-old Pau Cubarsí holding the center of defense — and yet it was 30-year-old Mikel Merino coming off the bench to score the winner in stoppage time. A team that young, playing that well, with that kind of balance between generational talent and experienced finishers, doesn't come along often. Spain's odds to win the tournament are worth a serious look.
The Dark Horses and the Underdogs
Norway are the most fun team left. Back in the World Cup for the first time since 1998, they beat Ivory Coast, beat Brazil, and only lost to France in the group stage — a game they played with their second string and conceded three to Ousmane Dembélé. Erling Haaland has seven goals, has scored in every match he's played, and his seven alone already equal Norway's total across their previous three World Cup appearances combined. Goalkeeper Ørjan Nyland saved a penalty against Brazil. The Viking Row celebration is genuinely spectacular. Norway are the pick if you want to enjoy the rest of this tournament.
Morocco are the only non-European, non-Argentine team in the quarterfinals. They made the semifinals four years ago, and they're back — efficient, defensively disciplined, and built around goalkeeper Yassine Bounou, who has been one of the tournament's best players. Against Canada, they scored three goals from four shots on target, all in the second half. They're a steep price to go all the way, but if UEFA dominance bores you, Morocco are the only alternative left.
Switzerland have never won a knockout game since hosting the tournament in 1954 — until this year, when they've already won two. They beat Algeria, then Colombia in a penalty shootout. They're also Argentina's next opponent, which makes them immediately useful for anyone who has had enough of the Messi story. The Swiss won't be flashy about it. But they might actually do it.
England have won the World Cup exactly once, in 1966, and have made the semifinals twice since — finishing fourth both times. This team is better than that history suggests. They beat Mexico 3-2 with a Jude Bellingham brace, finished the match with 10 men after a second-half red card, and still got the win. Harry Kane is deep in the Golden Boot race. The Three Lions are not a safe pick, but they're not the hollow hope they've been in previous cycles either.
Belgium beat the USMNT 4-1. If that's the team that ends your run, the easiest thing to do psychologically is to convince yourself they were just better. Because they were, in that game. A Belgium run to the final would retroactively make that loss feel a little more palatable. Sometimes that's enough of a reason.
