The USMNT didn't just qualify from Group B — they won it with a game to spare, playing some of the most energetic football this tournament has seen. Mauricio Pochettino's side beat Paraguay 4-1 and followed it up with a composed 2-0 win over Australia. Both opponents ranked inside FIFA's top 50. This wasn't a soft group, and the US didn't treat it like one.
Their World Cup odds reflect the momentum. What was priced around +5500 before kick-off has already tightened to +2800. Still a long shot, but no longer a laughable one.
Balogun is the name to back
Christian Pulisic was always going to be the face of this tournament for the US, but a calf injury in the first half against Paraguay changed the calculus fast. He's only played 45 minutes so far. In his absence, Folarin Balogun has stepped up — two high-quality finishes against Paraguay and a general sharpness that's made him the team's most dangerous forward.
Pulisic is still listed somewhere between +1600 and +2000 to be the USMNT's top scorer. Balogun is -500 at DraftKings. That gap is justified. Backing Balogun at those odds is as close to a sensible outright bet as you'll find in this market.
Gio Reyna, who's been used off the bench in both games, is around +800 to overhaul him. Haji Wright could work his way into the conversation if Pochettino starts him against Türkiye and he takes his chances. Keep an eye on that final group game for any shift in the pecking order.
Türkiye, then the real conversation starts
The final group game against Türkiye is a dead rubber for the hosts — Türkiye have lost both their opening matches without scoring. They still have Arda Güler and Kenan Yıldız on paper, but this group stage has been a write-off for them. Pochettino will rotate, Pulisic might get some minutes to sharpen up, and the US should win relatively comfortably. -115 on the US to take the win with FanDuel looks right.
The more interesting question is what comes after. The USMNT's best World Cup finish remains the quarter-final in 2002. They have a legitimate shot at the last 16, playing on home soil in Los Angeles and Seattle, in front of crowds that have been genuinely intense and loud. Home advantage is real — six host nations have won the tournament outright, and most have gone deep since France lifted it in 1998.
But the last 16 is also where the bracket tends to deliver a heavyweight. If the US run into Spain, Brazil, or France at that stage, the tournament likely ends there. +250 at BetMGM on the US reaching but exiting in the round of 16 prices up the most plausible outcome pretty fairly.
Tyler Adams in midfield is the engine that keeps this team functioning at a high tempo — when he's healthy and on form, the US are a genuinely difficult side to break down. The fitness picture across a compressed schedule will matter. One or two key absences in the knockout stages, and the ceiling drops fast.
- USA to win vs Türkiye: -115 (FanDuel)
- USA to reach but exit in the last 16: +250 (BetMGM)
- Folarin Balogun to be USMNT top scorer: -500 (DraftKings)
The 2002 quarter-final has stood as the high-water mark for 23 years. Whether this squad has the depth and the draw to beat it is the only question left worth asking.
