Group D at the 2026 World Cup has a bit of everything — a host nation under enormous pressure, a South American side who've already beaten Argentina and Brazil in qualifying, two exciting 21-year-olds who could steal the whole tournament, and Australia quietly doing what Australia always does: making life difficult for everyone.
Australia: Annoyingly hard to beat
Six straight World Cups. The Socceroos don't just show up — they compete. In 2022 they knocked out Tunisia and Denmark before forcing Argentina to work for their last-16 win. That's the eventual world champions, needing a proper game against a side most people had already written off.
The squad won't frighten anyone on paper. That's precisely the point. Aiden O'Neill — a 27-year-old with Irish heritage who turned down both the FAI and IFA — now plays his football with New York City in MLS after stints at Burnley, Melbourne City and Standard Liege. He's a useful illustration of how Australia cast their net wide to keep the roster competitive. Underestimate them and you'll pay for it. Their odds as group qualifiers deserve more respect than they'll get.
Paraguay: Quietly the most dangerous team in this group
Back at the World Cup for the first time since their 2010 quarter-final run, Paraguay under Gustavo Alfaro have done something genuinely difficult — they beat Argentina and Brazil at home during CONMEBOL qualification. Not on the same night. But still.
CONMEBOL qualifying doesn't do gifts. Every point is earned in hostile atmospheres against elite opposition. Alfaro has made this a properly organised, hard-running side with Miguel Almiron providing the quality up top. They're not here to make up the numbers.
Turkey are the flashy pick, USA are the hosts, but Paraguay might be the team who quietly dismantles this group. Anyone pricing them as heavy outsiders to progress hasn't been watching the South American qualifying campaign.
Turkey and USA: The two sides everyone's actually talking about
Turkey's return to the World Cup — their first since 2002, when they finished third — comes loaded with genuine excitement. Arda Guler (Real Madrid) and Kenan Yildiz (Juventus) are both 21. Both are already playing for two of the biggest clubs in the world. If either hits form in a tournament environment, Turkey become a serious problem for any side they face. Vincenzo Montella has built a squad that mixes that young talent with experienced heads who know what knockout football demands.
Then there's the United States, who are carrying the weight of a home tournament and a nation that's been waiting 32 years since 1994 to host again. Mauricio Pochettino — from Murphy, Santa Fe, a town named after an Irish immigrant from Wexford — takes charge of a squad that's been debated endlessly. Christian Pulisic remains the linchpin. But Pochettino's record with underperforming squads at big clubs suggests he can organise a side and get results even without everything clicking perfectly.
Home advantage in a World Cup is real and quantifiable — crowds, travel fatigue for opponents, familiar conditions. Whether it's enough to mask the squad's inconsistencies is the question US fans have been asking since Pochettino was appointed. Group D should answer it quickly.
- Australia — Sixth consecutive World Cup. Beat Tunisia and Denmark in 2022. Best finish: last 16.
- Paraguay — First World Cup since 2010. Defeated Argentina and Brazil at home in qualifying. Best finish: quarter-finals (2010).
- Turkey — First World Cup since 2002. Arda Guler and Kenan Yildiz, both 21, lead the attack. Best finish: 3rd place (2002).
- United States — Host nation. Coached by Mauricio Pochettino. Best finish: 3rd place (1930).
On paper this is USA's group to win. In practice, Paraguay's qualifying form and Australia's tournament resilience make it far more open than the seedings suggest.
