Six spots left. Forty-eight teams at the 2026 World Cup, and we still don't know who fills them all. The UEFA playoffs — 16 nations, eight semi-finals, four finals — decide four of those places. The intercontinental playoff handles the other two. What follows is where our writers actually land on each path.
Italy: The Favourite Nobody Trusts
The Azzurri are the most debated side in this entire bracket. Four-time world champions, technically the most decorated team in the draw — and yet nobody's backing them with any real conviction. Italy haven't found a coherent style under Luciano Spalletti, and their squad quality exists largely on paper rather than on the pitch.
Their path could include Wales at Cardiff, which is a genuine threat. Wales have an exceptional home record in knockout football, and playing both potential matches on their own turf gives them every reason for optimism. One of our writers is backing the upset. Others expect Italy to grind through — pointing to the quality of Donnarumma, Barella, and Tonali as the floor that ultimately saves them. The majority verdict leans Italy, but with caveats you rarely see attached to a four-time world champion.
Wales at home odds against Italy deserve a second look before this kicks off.
Sweden, Poland, and a Striker Showdown Worth Watching
Sweden didn't win a single group game in qualifying. Graham Potter — fresh off a four-year contract — inherits a side still missing Alexander Isak and Dejan Kulusevski. By any measure, that's a rough starting point. And yet, all four of our writers picked Sweden to advance through Path B.
The reasoning: Viktor Gyokeres. If Anthony Elanga and Lucas Bergvall can supply him, Sweden have a striker capable of carrying a team through two one-off playoff games. If Sweden beat Ukraine and face Poland in the final, you get Gyokeres vs Robert Lewandowski — which is genuinely one of the more compelling individual matchups this round of fixtures can produce.
Poland without Lewandowski doing something extraordinary don't look capable of stopping a functional Sweden side on neutral terms, let alone in Stockholm.
Turkey, Ireland, and the Wildcards
Turkey are the consensus pick in Path C. Arda Guler and Kenan Yildiz — both 20 years old — give them a level of attacking creativity that Romania, Slovakia, or Kosovo simply can't match. Turkey reached the Euro 2024 quarter-finals. The talent is real. The question is whether Hakan Calhanoglu and company can keep things tight enough defensively if the path leads to an away decider.
Path D is where opinions split sharply. The Republic of Ireland came through qualifying with famous wins over Portugal and Hungary. They'd have home advantage in the final if they get there — a Dublin crowd in a knockout game is worth something. But the Czech Republic and Denmark both carry more experience at this level, and sentiment doesn't win playoff ties. Two of our writers backed Ireland. Two went elsewhere — one landing on North Macedonia, another the Czech Republic.
In the intercontinental bracket, DR Congo is the near-unanimous pick. Bolivia earned their selection on merit — they beat Brazil, Chile, and Colombia in CONMEBOL qualifying, their last World Cup appearance coming at the 1994 tournament on American soil. That history adds context. The other intercontinental sides, including Iraq and Suriname, don't look equipped to sustain two knockout performances against that level of opposition.
- Tim's picks: Wales, Sweden, Turkey, Czech Republic, DR Congo, Bolivia
- Felipe's picks: DR Congo, Iraq, Italy, Sweden, Turkey, Republic of Ireland
- Phil's picks: DR Congo, Bolivia, Italy, Sweden, Turkey, North Macedonia
- Eduardo's picks: DR Congo, Bolivia, Italy, Sweden, Turkey, Republic of Ireland
Sweden and Turkey are the only sides all four writers agreed on. Italy got three votes. Everything else is genuinely open — which is exactly what one-off playoff football produces.
