The 2026 World Cup is here, and the oddsmakers have made their call: Spain and France are the two teams everyone else is chasing.
Spain open as slight favourites at +450 via DraftKings, with France right behind at +475. After that there's a meaningful gap before England (+700), Portugal (+850), and the two South American giants Brazil and Argentina, both sitting at +900. Six teams with a genuine case. Everyone else is praying for a miracle.
Where the value sits — and where it doesn't
England at +700 is the number that'll attract the most debate. Three consecutive major tournament finals or semi-finals, a squad that's arguably deeper than it's ever been, and they're still third favourites. That's either the market being cold-eyed about England's tournament history, or an opportunity depending on your level of optimism about Gareth Southgate's successor.
Germany at +1400 feels about right for a team in genuine transition. Netherlands at +2000 is interesting — they have the attacking talent to go deep and have done it before as underdogs. Norway at +3000 is essentially a Haaland special — back them and you're betting one man carries an entire nation.
The United States, playing on home soil, are listed at +6000. That's longer odds than Morocco (+5000), Japan (+5500), and Colombia (+4000). Home advantage in football is real, but the gap between the CONCACAF standard and what Spain or France bring every single week is still significant. The U.S. are at least the clear favourites within their group — Turkey are the closest rival there at +9000.
The opening fixtures set the tone
The tournament kicks off Thursday with Mexico vs. South Africa at the Azteca in Mexico City at 3 p.m. The United States play their first match Friday against Paraguay at SoFi Stadium in California (9 p.m.), before Haiti face Scotland on Saturday at Gillette Stadium in a 9 p.m. opener.
At the extreme end of the market, Uzbekistan, Qatar, New Zealand, Iraq, Haiti, Curacao, and Jordan are all listed between +150,000 and +250,000. For context, the longest-odds World Cup winner in history remains — well, probably not any of those teams. The 1950 final remains the benchmark for upsets: hosts Brazil, overwhelming favourites, lost 2-1 to Uruguay. That result still haunts Brazilian football seven decades later. It's the cautionary tale every favourite carries into every tournament.
- Spain: +450
- France: +475
- England: +700
- Portugal: +850
- Brazil: +900
- Argentina: +900
- Germany: +1400
- Netherlands: +2000
- Norway: +3000
- Colombia: +4000
- Belgium: +4000
- Morocco: +5000
- Japan: +5500
- United States: +6000
Spain and France. That's where the market has landed. The next six weeks will tell us whether the oddsmakers earned their money or handed it away.
