France top the pile. Deschamps has spent more of his pre-tournament preparation fighting off complacency than drilling shape — which tells you everything about the depth of talent at his disposal. "It isn't when a French sportsman is feeling comfortable that they are better," he warned. That self-awareness might be the most dangerous thing about them.
But this is a 48-team tournament now, and the expanded field changes everything. More group stage games in 2026 than total matches at any previous World Cup. Three nations ranked outside the top 80 of FIFA's rankings have made it. Italy hasn't. Gianni Infantino got his fever dream.
The genuine contenders
Argentina sit second. Scaloni is philosophical about it — "the pitch will decide" — which is the kind of thing you can say when you're the reigning champions and Lionel Messi is on your teamsheet. Spain are third despite injury doubts around Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal, and Fermín López already ruled out. A midfield of Pedri, Rodri and Fabián Ruiz still makes them nearly impossible to break down. Their title price deserves respect regardless.
England come in at four, and there's a genuine Alf Ramsey quality to Tuchel — a tactician willing to drop big names for the shape he wants, openly targeting the trophy. Sixty years since 1966. This is the best squad they've assembled in that entire stretch. Whether it translates is another matter, but the ingredients are there in a way they simply weren't under Southgate.
Germany at six are quietly dangerous. Nagelsmann's tactical layering is starting to stick — Musiala's own words: "Now it doesn't take as long for things to work well as before." A settled, cohesive Germany with Musiala in form is a different proposition to the chaotic versions of recent tournaments.
Norway at eight hinge almost entirely on Erling Haaland, and there's no shame in saying so. The country hasn't won a competitive match without a Haaland goal since October 2021. He rarely goes a game without scoring. The maths are simple, and the odds on Norway making a deep run are probably still generous enough to be interesting.
The dark horses and the hopefuls
Morocco at ten shouldn't be discounted simply because Regragui departed. The new man, Mohamed Ouahbi, has had 100 days of preparation — four more than Regragui had before orchestrating that 2022 semifinal run. The bones of that squad remain. Japan at twelve have a coach who has publicly stated winning the whole thing as the goal, and Moriyasu doesn't say things for effect.
Further down the list, the stories get more chaotic. Here's a quick scan of where things stand for the rest of the field:
- Brazil (7): Ancelotti is aware no foreign coach has ever won the World Cup. "There is always a first time," he said, eyebrow raised.
- Portugal (5): Roberto Martínez has leaned into numerology — lots of sixes, Eusébio references, 2026 destiny talk. Cristiano Ronaldo remains the variable nobody can quite calculate.
- Netherlands (9): Koeman expects improvement on their Euro 2024 semifinal. Memphis Depay at 32, fresh from two years in Brazilian club football, is the wildcard.
- Colombia (13): James Rodríguez is still the kind of player opposition defenders queue up to photograph. That's not good for stopping him.
- Croatia (11): Never underestimate them. They will personally hold it against you.
- Belgium (15): The Golden Generation refused to die. De Bruyne is back. Lukaku skipped most of his Napoli season to get fit for this. Axel Witsel is 37 and still there with the same haircut.
- USMNT (21): Pochettino keeps saying "why not" when asked if they can win it. The honest answer: they've never beaten a top team, they're suspect in transition, and the goalkeeper situation is shaky. Home advantage is real, but it only stretches so far.
- Mexico (18): Well-rested and familiar, but Aguirre has already managed expectations downward. "The team that plays the prettiest soccer does not always win." They won't be winning it.
At the bottom, New Zealand's build-up was dominated by social media interest in a 32-year-old right back. Haiti beat Aruba and Nicaragua before getting hammered 5-1 by Curaçao. DR Congo's last World Cup appearance — under the name Zaire in 1974 — ended with three defeats and 14 unanswered goals conceded, reportedly while forgetting the rules. The bar is on the floor, but it exists.
The 48-team format guarantees mismatches, lopsided group games, and the occasional 6-0 scoreline before lunch. Cannavaro, now managing Uzbekistan, put it cleanly: "It is a chance for everyone." He didn't say it was a chance to win.
