No group at the 2026 World Cup carries more political weight than Group G. Iran are preparing for a tournament while in active conflict with the United States — a country that is co-hosting the very competition. That's not background noise. That's the lens through which everything in this group gets viewed.
Iran's embassy in Mexico City pushed for FIFA to relocate Iran's three group-stage matches south of the border. FIFA said no. The matches go ahead as scheduled, including one in Seattle — on Pride weekend — against Egypt. Both nations formally objected to the so-called "Pride Match" designation on religious grounds. In Iran, gay and lesbian individuals face penalties up to and including death. FIFA held firm. The game stays.
Before a March friendly against Nigeria, Iranian players held small pink and purple backpacks during the national anthem — a tribute to children killed in a missile strike on an elementary school on February 28. Evidence points to a U.S. missile. Iran's planned training camp is in Tucson, Arizona. The layers here are not subtle.
Taremi leads a side that's never made it past the group stage
Strip the politics away and Iran are a legitimate Group G contender — at least for second place. Ranked 21st in the world and coached by former player Amir Ghalenoei, Team Melli dropped just one match in Asian qualifying. Captain Mehdi Taremi has 57 goals in 102 international appearances, a return that puts him among the most clinical strikers in the confederation. He's now at Olympiacos after stints at Porto and Inter Milan, and he's the focal point of everything Iran do going forward.
The problem is the history. Seven World Cup appearances. Zero round-of-16 berths. Four consecutive tournaments, four early exits. For all the talent, Iran have never cracked it at this level.
Belgium, meanwhile, are simply the best team in the group. No debate there. Kevin De Bruyne — playing in what will almost certainly be his final World Cup — has 36 goals in 117 caps and brings Napoli form into the tournament after recovering from a thigh injury. Jeremy Doku at Manchester City gives them electric width. They routed the United States 5-2 on American soil in March, which is both a statement result and a reminder that this Belgium squad, for all its years of underachievement, still has genuine quality.
Romelu Lukaku remains a major doubt with a hamstring injury that's kept him sidelined for months. If he misses the tournament entirely, Belgium lose their most physical attacking option — and their depth at striker gets uncomfortable quickly. That uncertainty is worth factoring into any early-tournament Belgian bets.
Salah, Wood, and teams with nothing to lose
Egypt have never won a World Cup match across three appearances. Mohamed Salah is their entire narrative. He's leaving Liverpool after nine years, which means the pre-tournament transfer speculation will be relentless — and his head may not be entirely in Cairo's camp. Coached by Egypt's all-time leading scorer Hossam Hassan (69 career goals), the Pharaohs held Spain to a 0-0 in March, which is a genuinely impressive result even accounting for Salah's absence through injury.
New Zealand are ranked 85th in the world and have never advanced from a group stage in three World Cup appearances. Captain Chris Wood has 45 international goals but missed five months with Nottingham Forest through injury and was still working back to fitness in the lead-up to the tournament. The All Whites will make it difficult for someone — they always do — but realistically, they're competing for respect rather than qualification.
- Belgium — clear group winners on paper, De Bruyne's fitness the only real concern
- Iran — the most scrutinised squad in the tournament, Taremi their best chance of doing damage
- Egypt — dependent on Salah being fit, focused, and motivated in what's a transitional moment in his career
- New Zealand — underdogs in every sense, Wood's fitness the difference between competitive and outclassed
Belgium open on June 15 against Egypt in Seattle. Iran face New Zealand in Inglewood on the same day. The group gets political fast after that. Iran versus the United States isn't on the schedule — but the tension will be everywhere regardless.
