"Between 1970 and 1994, it was 24 years. Between 2002 and 2026, that's also 24 years." That's the kind of logic driving Brazilian confidence heading into this tournament — and you know what, it's no more absurd than anything else that's happened to the Seleção over the past four years.
Because on paper, Brazil's road to 2026 was a disaster. Three managers. Six defeats in eighteen qualifiers — a record low points tally in that format. A first-ever home qualifying loss to Argentina. A quarterfinal exit at last year's Copa América. If the World Cup hadn't expanded to 48 teams, they'd have been fighting in a playoff just to get there. And yet the betting markets still have them among the favourites, Brazilian journalists are calling a sixth star, and Ancelotti is smiling.
Ancelotti is giving Brazil permission to be Brazilian again
Carlo Ancelotti — five Champions League titles, the most of any manager in history — became Brazil's first solo foreign coach in 112 years, and according to Brazilian coach Thomas Farines, he's already out-Brazilianing the Brazilians.
"If you think about the last few coaches, we've been playing too much as a European national team," Farines says. "The way that Ancelotti is coaching, he's giving the team more freedom. In a way, he's being more Brazilian than certain Brazilian coaches."
The beneficiary of that freedom is Vinicius Junior. Ancelotti handed him the keys at Real Madrid, and he's done the same with the national team. The numbers at club level are extraordinary — 128 goals in 376 appearances. For Brazil, though, it's nine goals in 49 caps. The gap is real, and Farines traces it to predictability: "He always does the same trick. He needs to go back to that Vinicius we saw at Flamengo at 16, 17. That crazy freedom." If Ancelotti can unlock that version, Brazil's attacking odds look very different.
History offers some comfort. Before the 1994 triumph, Brazil needed a final qualifying win over Uruguay just to make it to the United States. Before 2002, they were in crisis — chopped and changed their coaches — before Luiz Felipe Scolari arrived and built something. Farines draws the comparison to now deliberately. It's not blind faith. There's a pattern.
The Neymar question nobody wants to answer honestly
Then there's Neymar. Back from a three-year injury nightmare, added to the squad despite another fitness setback in the buildup, and greeted in Brazil "like a national celebration" according to Farines. His return carries the weight of an era that never quite reached its peak.
But Farines is candid about the complication: "Frankly, I have my doubts. We have two kids in the squad — Endrick and Rayan. I would be very disappointed if they lose playing time to give him opportunity when he's not ready yet."
The emotional logic is understandable. Most of this squad grew up idolising Neymar. Having him in the dressing room provides something a stat sheet can't measure. "He brings tranquillity," Farines says. Whether that's worth a roster spot ahead of two generational talents is the question Ancelotti has to answer when it actually matters.
What's not in doubt is Brazil's most significant injury absence: Chelsea winger Estevão, just 18 years old, who Farines calls "our biggest loss for this World Cup." Add Rodrygo, also sidelined, and Brazil are missing two of their most instinctive creative players before a ball has been kicked in Group stage matches against Morocco, Haiti, and Scotland.
- Estevão: described as an "old-school number 10" deployed on the right wing — his absence removes creativity and unpredictability from the attack
- Rodrygo: another player capable of changing a game in moments, gone before the tournament starts
- Neymar: fitness unknown, impact uncertain, emotional value undeniable
- Vinicius Jr.: the man carrying the weight of all of it
"Not having these two is losing a little bit of our soul," Farines says of Estevão and Rodrygo. That's not hyperbole — it's a genuine structural problem for a team already rebuilding its identity under a new foreign manager.
Brazil still believe. They always do. But belief and a sixth star are two very different things.
