Tim Howard said it plainly: "The U.S. cannot, unequivocally, win the World Cup." American fans bristled. After watching Spain dismantle Austria 3-0 at SoFi Stadium — a scoreline that flattered Austria — it's hard to argue with him.
Spain should have won 6-0. Every pass had a destination. Every attacking run looked pre-loaded. Lamine Yamal is making a genuine case as the best player on the planet right now, and behind him sits Rodri, the reigning Ballon d'Or winner, plus a depth chart that would upgrade nearly every national team in this tournament. This is what a World Cup contender actually looks like.
Which is exactly why what the United States has already done deserves more than a quick nod before pivoting to bracket math.
The history that keeps getting skipped over
The Americans beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 in the Round of 32. That result gave the U.S. only its second World Cup knockout-stage victory in the modern era — the first came against Mexico in 2002. That's 23 years between wins on this stage. The Bosnia result also snapped a 10-match winless run against European opposition at World Cups, stretching back to a draw with England in Qatar. The last time the U.S. beat a European team in this competition? Portugal. 2002.
Before all that, the Americans beat Paraguay 4-1 in their opener — one of the most commanding performances in program history — then beat Australia 2-0 to clinch Group D with a match to spare. Pochettino rested key players against Türkiye and still nearly won. This isn't a team surviving on adrenaline. There's a structure here that hasn't existed before.
And yet the conversation keeps jumping forward. Belgium on Monday. Then Spain. Then France. Then Argentina or Brazil. Four all-time performances in a row. Howard's math is correct: that's not pessimism, that's probability.
Belgium is the first real test — treat it like one
Paraguay (ranked 34th), Australia (28th), Türkiye (27th), Bosnia (61st) — the U.S. handled every team in their bracket that they were supposed to handle. Belgium, ranked 9th, is a different conversation. They're the first Top-25 side the Americans have faced, and if the U.S. win on Monday, it will almost certainly become the most-watched soccer broadcast in U.S. television history.
That result alone — if it happens — is worth treating as something complete. Not as a stepping stone. Not as confirmation that Spain is beatable. As its own thing.
- First consecutive World Cup wins since 1930
- Second knockout-stage win in the modern era
- First World Cup win over a European nation since 2002
- A team that has played with identity and confidence, not just effort
Mauricio Pochettino has given this group something previous American squads lacked: a clear way of playing that doesn't evaporate under pressure. That's not nothing. In a country where soccer still doesn't crack the top five sports, the USMNT have held national attention for three weeks straight.
If they beat Belgium, stand up and enjoy it. The bracket will still be there in the morning. Spain aren't going anywhere. But moments like this — a country genuinely locked in on a U.S. soccer match — don't come around often enough to spend them doing arithmetic.
"The U.S. will have to play the greatest game they've ever played four games in a row," Howard said. He's right. And right now, they've only had to do it once.
