For the first time in World Cup history, the quarter-finals feature none of Germany, the Netherlands, Italy or Brazil. Not one. That's not a rotation of bad luck — that's a structural shift in world football.
In their place: Morocco, Belgium, Norway, Switzerland. England are there too, and — somehow — people actually like them. More on that in a moment.
Why the old powers are fading
The argument runs like this. The Champions League used to be the balanced competition — different clubs, different countries, short windows of excellence. Feyenoord won it. Celtic won it. Red Star Belgrade won it. The World Cup, meanwhile, was a closed shop. Between England's 1966 triumph and France's in 1998, every single final was contested by Germany, the Netherlands, Argentina, Italy or Brazil. Every. Single. One.
Then the money arrived, player migration exploded, and the Champions League calcified into a tournament for mega-clubs from the big five leagues. Since Porto and Monaco met in 2004, every final has featured a club from the Spanish, German, Italian or English elite. That window is essentially shut if you're not from that group.
The World Cup has moved in the opposite direction. National teams can't buy their way to a golden generation. Morocco have Hakimi — arguably the world's best full-back — but they can't import anyone else. Norway have Haaland. But Brazil are picking attacking players from Bournemouth and Brentford. Germany's breakout player this tournament is Denis Undav, a 29-year-old who Brighton didn't want. Italy have Donnarumma and very little else at Champions League level.
Argentina are the exception, and even they've scraped past Cape Verde and Egypt. Without Messi, they're not a quarter-final team. That tells you everything.
The odds on a Morocco or Switzerland final appearance are no longer absurd. France vs Argentina still looks the likeliest final — but the gap between that outcome and something genuinely unexpected has never been smaller at this stage of a tournament.
England, of all teams, are now the feel-good story
Cast your mind back to the Roy Hodgson era, or further — the golden generation squads riddled with club rivalries, players who treated international duty as an inconvenience, fans climbing fences in frustration. Wayne Rooney genuinely seemed surprised that supporters were booing. Capello's England felt like a hostage situation for everyone involved.
What Gareth Southgate started — and Tuchel has continued — is something more basic than tactics. The squad appears to actually want to be together. That sounds like the lowest possible bar. For England, it took two decades to clear it.
Now supporters who'd normally carry club grudges into tournaments — Rice's cynical fouling, Gordon's diving, Pickford's everything — find themselves smiling anyway. The players sing with the fans. It registers.
- England beat Mexico with Bellingham, Saka, and Kane combining, not just one player carrying the rest
- Tuchel kept Rice on despite a booking — a decision that drew criticism, but speaks to genuine trust in the squad
- The quarter-final against Norway sets up the question of how you stop Haaland — and the answer probably runs through neutralising Ødegaard first
None of this guarantees anything. Norway with Haaland in form is a genuine threat, and the midfield battle will likely decide it. But for the first time in a long time, neutrals aren't rooting against England. That's new. That's worth something.
The World Cup has changed. England, improbably, have changed with it.
