Everyone's writing England off before a ball's been kicked. The heat, the Bellingham question marks, the usual chorus of self-flagellation. But look at the squad without the doom-tinted glasses and a different picture emerges.
Two genuinely world-class players. A manager who has actually won things — not a waistcoat, not a motivational speaker, a real manager who shapes teams. Players being picked in their actual positions, which sounds like a low bar until you remember England's recent history of square pegs in round holes.
The squad holds up against anyone
Kane and Bellingham at the top of the bracket. Behind them, Rice (assuming Arteta hasn't quietly broken him), James, and a Saka who's carrying some damage but is still dangerous. The squad valuation eclipses everyone else's by a considerable margin — and in a tournament defined by moments, England have players who win moments.
That's the point Rob from Hove makes, and it's worth sitting with. Liverpool's 2005 Champions League side were genuinely poor across large stretches of that run. They beat Ancelotti's Milan, Mourinho's Chelsea, Capello's Juventus. Not through dominance — through Dudek, Garcia, Gerrard. Through winning the moments that mattered.
Pickford, Kane, Bellingham. All three have done exactly that at club and international level. That's not nothing when tournament football comes down to 90 seconds of chaos in extra time.
The opposition isn't as frightening as billed
France have Mbappé and a coach who's been questioned at every turn. Spain have Yamal — when he's fit — and some genuine defensive vulnerabilities. Portugal are carrying the Ronaldo circus and a manager whose tactical reputation doesn't exactly inspire fear. Argentina without Messi in his prime are a tribute act. Brazil are Brazil: extraordinary talent, extraordinary dysfunction.
A one-on-one comparison with any of those sides doesn't require squinting to see England as competitive. The midfield concern is real — Ben Teacher's point about England being outrun in the middle against top opposition has historical weight behind it. Tuchel's biggest challenge isn't the attack or the defence. It's building a midfield unit that doesn't get swallowed up by Rodri or whatever Spain roll out.
But the ingredients are there. The squad picks itself. The manager knows what he's doing. And for the first time in a while, England go into a tournament where the pessimism might actually be underselling them.
