"It is very difficult to repeat it." That's Javier Zanetti — Argentina captain, Messi admirer, and not a man given to doomscrolling. When even the optimists are hedging, that tells you something.
Argentina arrive at the 2026 World Cup as defending champions and genuine contenders. They also arrive carrying the weight of a historical pattern that has crushed better squads than this one. The last team to retain the World Cup on a different continent was Brazil in 1962. The last three holders before France in Qatar didn't just fail to retain — they didn't get out of the group. Germany 2018, Spain 2014, Italy 2010. All bottom of their groups. All humiliated.
The squad that won it is mostly still there — that's the problem
Argentina are bringing back 10 of the 11 starters from the Qatar final. That sounds like a strength. History says otherwise.
It's the same trap every successful team falls into. Players and coaches stick around. The winning chemistry feels too precious to break up. But a squad that looked electric two years ago can quietly become a different animal — slower, a step behind, playing on reputation rather than legs.
Nicolas Otamendi is 38 and heading to River Plate after the tournament. Nicolas Tagliafico is 33. Alexis Mac Allister, once the midfielder who split France open with a lung-busting run to set up Di Maria's opener in the final, is now a different kind of player at Liverpool — more measured, less explosive. That version served him well in the Premier League. It's a different ask in a knockout World Cup.
Germany in 2018 is the blueprint for how this goes wrong. Joachim Löw kept faith in an ageing core. Sami Khedira was being hauled off before the hour. Mesut Özil, once relentless, had changed as a player even if his name hadn't. The squad looked the same on paper and played nothing like they had four years earlier. They finished behind Sweden and Mexico.
Messi at 39 is still the plan
Lionel Messi turns 40 in June. He'd need to win five knockout games in 15 days. He spent last season in MLS. And yet — you can't write him off, because he came into the tournament in form, topped South American qualifying as the leading scorer, and Zanetti's read on him remains unambiguous: "He is the best in history. For me, he is the best in the past, the best now."
There is some new blood. Nico Paz has been exceptional at Como, helping drag them into the Champions League. Valentin Barco, 21, has forced his way in. Giuliano Simeone adds options. Scaloni has built something around Messi that functions, and the trust between manager and player is real — but the architecture still runs through a 38-year-old playing in a league that doesn't prepare you for what a World Cup demands in July.
Argentina's odds reflect a team that can win it. They also reflect a team that hasn't been seriously tested at this level since Qatar. The gap between Copa America favourites and World Cup holders is significant, and the historical tax on defending champions is steep. France came closest in recent memory — and they still lost the final.
"I hope that Argentina can still do it," said Zanetti. Hope, from the man who played 858 games for Inter and captained a nation. That's where it sits.
