"After the disappointment of the 2022 final, France looks well equipped to go one better this time." That's RBC senior economist Cathal Kennedy, and he's far from alone. A Reuters poll of 160 economists from nearly every continent has France lifting the trophy on July 19 — edging Spain, embarrassing Brazil, and sending Kylian Mbappé home with both the Golden Ball and the Golden Boot.
France drew 35% of the vote, Spain 31%. Argentina, Portugal, and England rounded out the top five. Those numbers align closely with current betting markets, and the logic behind them is sound: France's 2022 finalists are now a year older and considerably more seasoned, a core of PSG talent has stepped up, and Mbappé is coming off another prolific season at Real Madrid.
What this means for Deschamps — and for history
If France win, Didier Deschamps becomes the first manager to win two World Cups since Italy's Vittorio Pozzo in 1938. He'd also be the only person ever to win the tournament as both player (1998) and coach. That's the kind of legacy that doesn't need embellishment.
The Golden Boot race has a subplot worth following. Mbappé is on 12 World Cup goals, Kane on eight, Messi on 13 — all within range of Miroslav Klose's all-time record of 16. Whether any of them gets there will be one of the defining storylines of the tournament.
Brazil's problem, and a few surprises
For Brazil, the verdict is blunt. Nearly a third of economists picked the Seleção as the biggest powerhouse likely to disappoint — even with Carlo Ancelotti now in charge. Quarter-final exits don't erase themselves, and confidence in this squad is thin.
Norway, driven by Erling Haaland, was the pick of 21% as the most likely underdog to cause chaos. Japan came in at 15%. Spain's 18-year-old Lamine Yamal topped the breakout star vote — scattered across 46 names, which tells you how open that race really is.
- Favourites: France (35%), Spain (31%), Argentina, Portugal, England
- Biggest flop pick: Brazil (nearly a third of respondents)
- Top underdog: Norway (21%), Japan (15%)
- Golden Ball & Boot pick: Kylian Mbappé
- Golden Glove contenders: Maignan, Martínez, Unai Simón
73% of respondents said gut feeling drove their picks. Only 20% leaned on data and models. For all the macroeconomic sophistication in the room, Shannon Bold of the Bureau of Economic Research put it best: "The forecast was adjusted with a heavy dose of gut feel." That's football. Even the people who forecast inflation for a living can't crack it.
