"I don't see Portugal winning the World Cup. I don't see Argentina being able to repeat their success." That's Kasey Keller — four-time World Cup veteran, former Tottenham goalkeeper — cutting straight through the nostalgia surrounding two of football's all-time greats.
Speaking with Jackpot City Casino, Keller laid out his favorites for the 2026 tournament: Spain, France, and England. All European. All younger. All, in his view, more likely to lift the trophy than sides built around players turning 38 and 41 before the group stage is done.
It's a cold but defensible take. Messi will be 38 when the tournament kicks off and will turn 39 on June 24 — mid-tournament. Ronaldo hits 41 in February. Age isn't just a number at a six-week tournament played in North American summer heat. It's a variable that betting markets are already pricing into both nations' outright odds, and rightfully so.
Europe's case is strong, Brazil's is complicated
Keller's European trio each carries genuine weight. Spain are reigning European champions and arguably the most cohesive unit in world football right now. France have the squad depth to win any tournament if they can actually function as a team — a significant if, given their recent history of internal dysfunction. England, meanwhile, have a generation of players hitting peak age at exactly the right moment.
"I really like England's squad — they have to be one of the favorites," Keller said. Then added the caveat every England fan dreads: "I just hope that with all this hype, it doesn't become too much. We know English fans get a little excited when they start to have a bit of success."
He was less harsh on Brazil, framing them as a wildcard rather than a write-off: "With no expectations, can Brazil step up when they haven't necessarily been playing well?" It's a fair question. Brazil haven't looked convincing in recent international windows, but their talent pool never fully empties.
What this actually means for Argentina and Portugal
Argentina arrive as defending champions. They beat France on penalties in Qatar, claimed their third World Cup title, and land in Group J where they'll open against Algeria on June 16 in Kansas City, before facing Austria and Jordan. On paper, a comfortable path to the knockouts.
Portugal are in Group K — Congo, Uzbekistan, Colombia — and should advance without drama. The question, as always with this Portugal side, is what happens when the real tests begin.
- Argentina vs Algeria — June 16, Kansas City
- Argentina vs Austria — June 22, Dallas
- Argentina vs Jordan — June 27
- Portugal vs DR Congo — June 17
- Portugal vs Uzbekistan — June 23
- Portugal vs Colombia — June 27
One complicating factor: Messi hasn't even confirmed he'll be there. Ronaldo has — he's stated plainly this is his final World Cup. That certainty at least gives Portugal a fixed star to build around. Argentina's planning is murkier until Messi commits.
Keller isn't saying Argentina and Portugal can't make noise. He's saying he doesn't see them going all the way. At their ages, in a 48-team tournament stretched across an entire continent, that's not cynicism. That's arithmetic.
