The field is set. 48 teams, three countries, 104 matches — and more unresolved political and sporting drama surrounding a World Cup than anyone has seen in decades. The tournament kicks off June 11 in Mexico City and finishes July 19 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, and the questions stacking up around it are almost as compelling as the football itself.
Spain enter as favorites, sitting top of FIFA's rankings and fresh off the European Championship. France and England are the closest challengers on most books. Argentina, chasing back-to-back titles for the first time since Brazil in 1962, are right behind — assuming their best player actually shows up.
Messi: probably there, probably not 100%
Lionel Messi will turn 39 during the tournament. Argentina manager Lionel Scaloni still hasn't confirmed he'll feature. In a late 2024 NBC interview, Messi himself offered this ringing endorsement of his own availability: "I would like to be there... and I'm going to assess that on a day-to-day basis." That's not the language of a man brimming with certainty.
Groin problems have interrupted his recent seasons. He's playing in MLS, not the Champions League. The honest read is that if Messi can run without restriction come June, he'll be in the squad — Argentina wouldn't leave him out. But "if he can run" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence, and it's a real factor in Argentina's title price.
Ronaldo, meanwhile, missed Portugal's March friendlies with a hamstring issue but is expected to be fit. His sixth World Cup, at 41. Whatever you think of his Saudi adventure, that's a genuinely extraordinary fact.
Politics and logistics are competing for headlines
This World Cup exists inside an unusually hostile political climate for an international tournament. Trump's travel bans target four qualified nations — Iran, Haiti, Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire. A separate bond requirement, up to $15,000 for travelers from certain countries, currently applies to Algeria, Cape Verde, Côte d'Ivoire, Senegal and Tunisia — with no exemption for athletes or officials at this stage. Fans from those nations trying to watch their teams in person are facing a bureaucratic wall.
Iran's situation is the most volatile. After US and Israeli airstrikes, Iran's federation president said the team would "boycott the United States" but "not the World Cup," floating the idea of playing home games in Mexico. FIFA president Gianni Infantino, who has spent considerable time at Mar-a-Lago and attended Trump's inauguration, insisted Tuesday that Iran "are going to play" and there's no backup plan. Trump, separately, said Iran shouldn't play "for their own life and safety." The situation remains genuinely unresolved.
A European boycott, floated in January amid the Greenland annexation rhetoric, is almost certainly not happening. But the noise around it reflects a real discomfort that hasn't fully dissipated.
On the pitch: the numbers behind the expanded format
The expansion to 48 teams is primarily financial — FIFA projected roughly $1 billion in additional income when it announced the change in 2017. The football consequence is that four debutants (Cape Verde, Curaçao, Jordan and Uzbekistan) will experience a World Cup for the first time, while Curaçao — population 165,000 — becomes the smallest nation ever to appear at the tournament.
The US gets 78 of the 104 matches. From the quarterfinals onward, it's an entirely American show. The host nation USMNT open June 12 in Inglewood against Paraguay, with Mauricio Pochettino trying to turn the most talented US generation in history into something that actually performs consistently. They beat Uruguay 5-1 recently. They also lost 5-2 to Belgium. That range tells you everything about the challenge.
- Prize money: $50m for the winner, $727m distributed across all 48 participants
- Spain, England and France lead most outright betting markets
- Final rosters due May 30; provisional lists of up to 55 players submitted before that
- Every match will include two three-minute hydration breaks — and broadcasters can now run ads during them
- The final at MetLife will feature a half-time show; Chris Martin is reportedly involved
Italy, four-time champions, aren't there. New Zealand, ranked 85th in the world, are. That's the 48-team World Cup in one sentence. Whether it produces better football than a tighter field would — that's the argument that'll run until the final whistle in New Jersey on July 19.
