"The intensity of the game goes down." Norwegian midfielder Morten Thorsby didn't dress it up, and he's right. The 2026 FIFA World Cup is heading into one of the most climatically hostile summers North America has seen in years — and the football will show it.
England open against Croatia on June 17 in Dallas, Texas. Preliminary research published in The Guardian suggests wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) — the measurement that factors in heat, humidity, direct sunlight, and wind — could exceed 32°C in Dallas during the tournament. That's the point at which FIFA rules say consideration should be given to suspending a match. Several governing bodies, including global players' union Fifpro, consider 28°C already a threshold for potential delays.
How bad could it actually get?
The US National Weather Service's seasonal outlook projects above-average temperatures across every part of the country in June and July. Mexico has already broken heat records this spring — the north-western city of Hermosillo hit 42°C in March, and schools are finishing six weeks early due to an ongoing extreme heat wave. Thirteen World Cup games are scheduled in Guadalajara, Mexico City, and Monterrey. A report from Football for Future and Common Goal found that 10 of the 16 host venues are at very high risk of extreme heat stress conditions.
Canada's 13 games are the exception — temperatures of 20–25°C make those venues genuinely comfortable. But that still leaves the bulk of the knockout pressure falling on cities baking in peak summer heat.
And heat isn't the only variable. Wildfire season is already at historic levels across the US — nearly 30,000 fires since January, the most in almost two decades — with air quality a real concern as summer deepens. Severe thunderstorms are common in Miami, Houston, and Atlanta, where lightning within 10 miles of a stadium triggers a 30-minute stoppage under US safety protocols.
What FIFA is doing — and what it won't solve
FIFA's response includes mandatory three-minute cooling breaks in each half, more evening kickoffs, up to five substitutions, a minimum of three rest days between matches, and climate-controlled benches for staff and substitutes. These are sensible adjustments. They won't change the fact that most stadiums are open-air, meaning players and fans remain exposed to peak summer temperatures for 90-plus minutes.
The performance data is not ambiguous. Studies consistently show players cover less distance, execute fewer high-intensity sprints, and fatigue faster in extreme heat. Exhausted players get injured more. There's also a documented correlation between high-heat matches and more penalty shootouts — tired teams struggle to break each other down in extra time. Anyone pricing up knockout-stage betting markets should factor that in: the heat could push more games to spot kicks than usual, especially in the later rounds.
- WBGT above 32°C possible in Dallas, Houston, and Monterrey
- 10 of 16 venues rated at very high risk of extreme heat stress
- Nearly 30,000 US wildfires already in 2026, the most in two decades
- Mandatory 3-minute cooling breaks introduced per half
- Lightning within 10 miles = mandatory 30-minute suspension of play
A group of current and former professionals — Thorsby among them — have written to FIFA demanding stronger protections. FIFA's official response: "FIFA is committed to protecting the health and safety of players, referees, fans, volunteers and staff." That's as non-committal as it sounds.
The World Cup will go ahead in the heat regardless. The question is whether the football it produces will reflect what the game looks like at its best — or what it looks like when 22 players are quietly surviving rather than actually playing.
