"Three weeks ago, I thought he was dead." That quote, from a senior global football source who knows exactly how these backroom conversations go, tells you everything about how fast the FIFA presidential race has flipped.
Gianni Infantino, written off this summer after the collapse of his plan to sell a 20% stake in FIFA competitions to private investors, now has enough votes to win re-election in March 2027. His opponents know it. And they're scrambling to figure out what to do next.
The electoral arithmetic doesn't lie
Here's the core problem for UEFA and allies: at FIFA Congress, every one of the 211 member associations gets exactly one vote. Europe's 55 members aren't close to enough. Beating Infantino requires a genuine cross-continental coalition — Africa, South America, Oceania, parts of Asia — and right now, those blocs aren't budging.
Oceania is firmly behind him. Africa, despite the AFC and CONCACAF calling for change, remains largely satisfied. CONMEBOL is still on board. Infantino spent a decade building those relationships one by one, and as the source put it: "The relationships he has built are almost unbreakable."
That leaves Europe in a genuinely awkward position. Challenge him and lose? That doesn't weaken him — it hands him a mandate. "It is even more of a risk for UEFA to go to a vote and not win," the same source warned. It's the kind of calculation that turns loud opposition into quiet accommodation very quickly.
No candidate, no coalition, no plan
Nasser Al-Khelaifi, PSG president and widely seen as one of the few figures with the profile to build a cross-confederation challenge, has ruled himself out. Flat out. No ambition, no interest, no intention. CONCACAF's Victor Montagliani has said he won't stand without being certain he can win — which is a polite way of saying he's not standing.
The nomination deadline is November 18. That's just over two months to find a willing candidate, build a global programme, and secure commitments across continents. France withdrew its backing for Infantino on Thursday without naming who should replace him — French federation president Philippe Diallo admitted as much: "Our mission now is to make sure that a programme and a candidate emerge."
That's not a plan. That's a wish list with a deadline.
So attention is shifting. Rather than removing Infantino, some officials are now examining whether his powers can be clipped — stronger checks on commercial decisions, greater transparency, authority redistributed away from the presidency. Diallo confirmed this is part of the internal UEFA debate, including whether powers could transfer from the president to an appointed secretary general.
It's a significant retreat from where things stood in July. And for anyone tracking FIFA's governance trajectory, it suggests Infantino emerges from this crisis not just intact, but arguably with his grip tightened — at least until the next storm rolls in.
The FIFA presidential election takes place in Rabat on March 18, 2027.
