Lionel Messi is 39, plays in MLS, and is once again a genuine Ballon d'Or contender. France Football has confirmed geography isn't a barrier, and Argentina's run to another World Cup final has done the rest.
The eligibility question gets raised every year, so here's the definitive answer: the Ballon d'Or dropped its European club requirement in 2007. Any player, anywhere in the world, can win it. Messi already proved that in 2023, becoming the first men's winner from a non-European club while officially on Inter Miami's books — though in fairness, the voting period that year captured most of his final PSG months before the move stateside.
What his World Cup has actually looked like
This isn't a sentimental late-career narrative. Messi's tournament numbers are doing the talking. Two assists against England helped Argentina past a semi-final and into another final. He's in the Golden Boot race. He's become the World Cup's all-time leading goalscorer.
A second consecutive World Cup title would make his case almost impossible to argue against, regardless of where he spends his club Saturdays.
The Ballon d'Or market just got significantly more complicated for bookmakers to price. Anyone who had written Messi off as an MLS curiosity is being reminded — again — why that's a mistake.
Who he's up against
The competition is real. Harry Kane has had a season that demands serious recognition: 61 goals across all competitions, a domestic double with Bayern Munich, and another European Golden Shoe. His club numbers are extraordinary by any modern standard.
Bayern teammate Michael Olise is the wildcard — 22 goals and 31 assists while starring in a Champions League semi-final run. Those are numbers that would get anyone noticed.
Reigning holder Ousmane Dembélé won the Champions League again, but France's World Cup semi-final exit has cost him momentum at the worst possible moment. Ballon d'Or voters tend to weight the summer tournament heavily, and he won't be lifting anything in North America.
- Lionel Messi — World Cup final, all-time leading scorer, Golden Boot contender
- Harry Kane — 61 goals, domestic double, European Golden Shoe
- Michael Olise — 22 goals, 31 assists, Champions League semi-finalist
- Ousmane Dembélé — Champions League winner, but France eliminated in semis
The rules are settled. The race isn't. If Argentina win that final, Messi's ninth Ballon d'Or becomes the most defensible — and most debated — award in the trophy's 70-year history.
