Andrew Giuliani, head of the White House's World Cup task force, said plainly this week: Iran are expected to compete. That's the clearest signal yet from the US side that the tournament won't be missing one of its more politically charged participants — but the road to that outcome is still full of potholes.
Speaking at CPAC in Texas, Giuliani told the BBC that Iran would be "welcome and safe" if they chose to attend. "Right now, we're expecting the Iranian team to come," he said. "I think it's a great opportunity for the Iranian diaspora here in the United States of America to be able to celebrate their country."
Fine words. But the context around them is messy.
FIFA said no — and Iran's fears aren't unreasonable
Iran requested that all their World Cup group stage matches be played in Mexico, citing safety concerns about competing on US soil. FIFA denied the request. That denial, combined with Trump posting on Truth Social that it wasn't "appropriate" for Iran to attend — for their "own life and safety" — gave those fears some legitimate grounding.
Iran's national team responded by calling for the US to be ejected from the tournament entirely. Giuliani has since claimed Trump's post was actually directed at the Iranian women's national team, whose members were reportedly considering seeking asylum in Australia after allegations their families back home were being threatened by the regime. Whether that clarification lands is another matter.
Trump has since delayed plans to target Iranian energy infrastructure after confirming that nuclear talks with Tehran are "going well." That geopolitical softening is probably the biggest practical reason Iran's participation now looks more likely than not.
Group G is waiting
If Iran do compete, they land in Group G alongside Belgium, Egypt and New Zealand. On paper, that's a winnable group — not a cakewalk, but one where progression is realistic. The betting markets for Group G will be worth watching as this situation clarifies over the coming weeks.
Elsewhere, the World Cup picture is sharpening. Italy, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Turkiye, Czechia, Denmark, Poland, Kosovo and Sweden have all advanced to the final European qualifying stage. Six spots still remain globally. Wales and Northern Ireland, meanwhile, are out — both eliminated in penalty shootouts.
Giuliani's parting line was telling: the Department of Homeland Security needs to "open up" to make the tournament both safe and a "truly incredible success." That's not the language of a man who thinks this is sorted. It's the language of someone still lobbying for resources to make a complicated situation workable.
